Predicting Bloom: The Problem

Temperate trees, having evolved in climates with distinct seasons, have “dormancy requirements” that allow them to track the passing of winter to know when conditions are safe for bloom.

Like a sleeping person, trees need both enough “sleep” (winter cold) and a loud enough “alarm clock” (spring heat) to wake up.

Currently in California, bloom predictions are based solely on winter chilling conditions. Previous work has found, in California, that the amount of tree-perceived cold could decrease from historic averages by half by the end of the century.

However, there are currently no models that accurately and reliable forecast bloom timing in California based on chilling and heat.

Tree buds need both winter cold & spring heat to develop

Our Research Aims

To create a mathematical model and a user-interface for California tree crop growers to predict the timing of bloom, pollen shed and leaf-out [More...Objective 1]
To predict the impacts of climate change on growing conditions for tree crops in California [More...Objective 2]

Almond: bud to bloom